Covid-19 Data Issues in Saint Charles County

May 22 Update:
I reached out to the County Health Department about this discrepancy and received the following reply/explanation:

The County’s health and information systems departments did switch reporting systems recently and noticed an error in the presentation of reported numbers. This caused the issue you note, and this was corrected as soon as possible.

I am not sure if the switch refers to the update to the PowerBI dashboard or if it refers to the actual source they are collecting the data from. I have not nioticed any updates the the actual layout or content of the dashboard, so i assume it is the data source. If the change in source resulted in a greater than 5% negative change in reported cases, then there seems to be valid reason for concern with the validity of the numbers that have been previously reported.

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Original post:
I have been tracking the spread of Covid-19 in St. Charles County since the day the first case was announced. For several weeks, the County only had a table of current data on the site, so I was manually tracking daily case totals in a spreadsheet in order to see the trends. Finally, the County utilized PowerBI to provide some graphs of the data in a dashboard format. However, the County had not created some of the graphs that I thought helped better tell the story, so I continue to input and update daily new cases and deaths into my spreadsheet, all based on the published County data.

Over the course of this pandemic, firm numbers regarding positive cases, and even deaths, have been hard to establish. For Saint Charles County, the tale is no different. Most days, I have to scroll back though the previous days and update a few up or down by 1 or 2 cases. Typically, most of the changes occur to dates within the past 14 days, which makes sense, as this is within the window of symptoms presenting and test results being obtained. However, over the past week, I have noticed that the numbers are changing on dates much further back in time. 

The Election's Undecided

I'll start with letting you know this post does not endorse or oppose either candidate...

Tonight is the first Presidential debate for the 2012 election cycle. I have yet to determine if I will attempt to watch it live or in my usual, after-the-fact YouTube manner. I'm sure everyone reading this is just dying to find out what I think of it all, so I might update the page tomorrow with some of my thoughts.

One thing that seems clear to me with this election is that it seems to me that there are two very different candidates and agendas on this year's ballot. In some circles I am sure that is frowned upon, but I'm okay with the seemingly simplistic choices that are set before us as voters.

Is either candidate perfect? No. Candidates never are.
Do they represent everything everyone in their respective party believes in? No. Presidential candidates never represent the entirety of the party and never will be able to.

And then I read this today:

The "undecideds" make up roughly 6 percent of the electorate, with a slightly higher concentration in an Upper Midwest region including Ohio and Wisconsin, swing states that could determine the outcome of a close election.

What? How is this possible?
How do you look at the two candidates and not already know who you are going to pick?
I seriously have no idea how anyone could not have already formed their vote in this election.
I suppose I shouldn't be surprised by this fact, but I am.

If you don't know who you are going to vote for, do a little research.
It won't be hard, I promise.
You can start with the candidate websites.
You can perform news searches on each candidate.
You can watch hours of video containing campaign speeches, interviews and other information.

In my opinion, there is no reason whatsoever to not know who you will be voting for at this point in the game. The only way I see this as being possible is if you are a single issue voter and you don't know where the candidates stand on that issue. Given the amount of time and coverage that has already been poured into this election cycle, it is hard to believe that you all important single issue has not already been discussed by either candidate.

So tonight two men will take a stage and talk to a camera about a lot of different issues.
Then each campaign will spin what the other guy said to maximize the "damage" to gain a few votes.
Then the pundits will chime in with their thoughts and opinions.

Is it worth watching/listening to the debates? I believe it is.
Should it help you determine in this election who you will vote for? I don't believe so.

That decision should be clear enough by now on its own merits.

Lincoln and Daniel Day-Lewis

There are several reasons why I am looking forward to this movie.
- I've heard good things about the book it is based on: Doris Kearns Goodwin’s biography, ‘Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln’. I hope to read it in the near future.
- I'm a fan of Spielberg. I hope to see how he captures this story.
- I think that Daniel Day-Lewis is arguably the greatest character actor of our time. The intensity that he devotes to studying and developing a character prior to setting foot on set is amazing. I simply cannot wait to see how he portrays the President.

Our Current Position Visualized

This was the front page on CNN this morning and I couldn't resist capturing it and posting it here.

To me, this is a perfect example of what is wrong with our economy and country right now.
Warning: Generalized statements are about to be made which may not be true for all parties involved.

Standing for Nothing
There is a group of people who feel entitled to something without doing anything, or whatever it is they want. (see Occupy Something)

Speaking for Nothing
There is a group of wealthy people who feel that government should place even more of the burden on the rich. The fact that this call is now also coming from a couple dozen wealthier people does not change the fact that it is just another call to redistribute wealth. The fact that Warren Buffet is being used to champion this idea is simply ludicrous. (Buffet has sheltered his wealth from Federal Taxes and has admitted that he thinks the government would not handle the money as effectively and efficiently as a private organization.)

If the wealthy are so concerned with how much they have, they should stop making so much profit (money) or start giving a lot more of it away. This is their personal problem and not the government's problem. If they truly were struggling to sleep at night because they honestly believed that they had too much money and that it could be used to aid other people who desperately need it, they would have already set into motion the actions required to reconcile that conviction on their own. There is no role for the government required here. Thus, it is a cheap political stunt.


Neither of these groups represent a majority opinion. Far from it.

How did we end up here?
Our government has adopted the strategy of the one offered by the company to the right of the page. Spend what you do not have now, pay off less than the interest later and at some point down the line you will realize you are in way over your head and you will desperately need to change your behavior. However, like most Americans, our government refuses to change its spending behaviors, even after after the cost of continuing down the same road become patently clear and the outcome unavoidable.

How do I think we get out of this mess?
- We stop catering to the minority of the population  who screams the loudest. We stop handling them with soft gloves. If you want to protest anything, you need to do it within the bounds of the law. If you go beyond the law, then you should have the entirety of that law brought to bear against you and the organization you claim to represent.

- We need to stop listening to people who claim to offer solutions that appear selfless, when the reality is that their "solution" will not solve the problem. In fact, their path only leads to people other than themselves having more money taken away from them, thus increasing the gap between the ultra-rich and the wealthy.
- We stop spending money we do not have. We force our government to work for us, as it was intended. I do not work in order to pay for a government program. I work in order to have the ability to provide for my family's current and future needs. I am planning for my own future, as best as I can. It would be a lot easier for me if the government that is charged with protecting me woudl stop attacking me financially.
- We stop putting people in positions of power that cannot balance a budget. If you cannot run a household or business without going into debt, we do not need you attempting to guide the country. If you cannot run an election campaign without bungling your finances, we don't need you "helping" solve the crisis we have placed ourselves in as a nation.
- We stop electing people because they seem nice or energetic or young or whatever. We need to elect good, strong people to lead this country in a new direction. We need politicians who see it as being allowed to offer their services to their country and fellow citizens for a season, instead of having politicians who see it as the ultimate SWAG party and ridiculous retirement plan.
- We need to stop electing non-representatives. You work for me as well as the guy who disagrees with me. I am a fellow citizen of yours, just like he is - we are not just your constituents. You answer to me, even when you don't want to. If you make a choice that I find different from my desire, I have the right to express that opinion, regardless of how it might make you feel. If you do not want to hear the opinions of those that you claim to represent, then you have no right to claim to be their representative.
- We need to throw political correctness and sensitivity in the trash can. At the moment, there is very little room in political discourse for us to skirt around certain issues on our tippy toes because you or one of your lobbyist friends might take offense. Please be offended. Be offended that it took so long for you to feel or recognize how poorly you have done your job. Be offended at the fact that many of your actions have led us to this place. If you are too sensitive to deal with these very real, very large issues without getting your feathers ruffled through a lively, boisterous and heated debate, then there is no place for you in politics. Go home and cry in your bed for a while - the country will be better off with you there. This isn't to say that we should be hateful or disrespectful, but we should get fired up about what you are and are not doing with and to our country. That is patriotic. If you cannot handle grown up conversation in a real world that isn't filled with fairies and color-blindness, then you should go write children's stories and not attempt to tell us what stories we can and should read to our children.
- See Why I Think America is in Deep Trouble

Sorry about the length of this post. I got a bit carried away here. It started out as a quick picture and ended with me getting all riled up. I do not apologize for my convictions nor my vocalization of those beliefs, merely for the length of the content.

I hate politics as they are and dream of how I think they could be.
There are so many people on both sides of the aisle that do not deserve to be called representatives or leaders of our country. I am hoping that real world Americans begin to be better represented in the Washington DC.
That starts with you in the voting booth.
Get informed.
Get fired up.
Get represented.
Get America back on track.

Virtue is Not Hereditary

Today's quote comes from the section entitled "OF THE PRESENT ABILITY OF AMERICA, WITH SOME MISCELLANEOUS REFLEXIONS":

We ought to reflect, that there are three different ways, by which an independancy may hereafter be effected; and that ONE of those THREE, will one day or other, be the fate of America, viz. By the legal voice of the people in Congress; by a military power; or by a mob: It may not always happen that our soldiers are citizens, and the multitude a body of reasonable men; virtue, as I have already remarked, is not hereditary, neither is it perpetual.

- Above quote is Thomas Paine's "Common Sense"

This is the fifth and final post in a series of my favorite portions of Thomas Paine's book "Common Sense". It is a worthwhile read and is available free from Amazon for download to Kindle or other device.

An Apostate From Manhood

Today's quote comes from the section entitled "OF THE PRESENT ABILITY OF AMERICA, WITH SOME MISCELLANEOUS REFLEXIONS":

The Speech if it may be called one, is nothing better than a wilful audacious libel against the truth, the common good, and the existence of mankind; and is a formal and pompous method of offering up human sacrifices to the pride of tyrants.
...
And he who can so calmly hear, and digest such doctrine, hath forfeited his claim to rationality—an apostate from the order of manhood; and ought to be considered—as one, who hath, not only given up the proper dignity of a man, but sunk himself beneath the rank of animals, and contemptibly crawls through the world like a worm.

- Above quote is Thomas Paine's "Common Sense"

This is the fourth post in a series of my favorite portions of Thomas Paine's book "Common Sense". It is a worthwhile read and is available free from Amazon for download to Kindle or other device.

Debt Without Advantage

Today's quote comes from the section entitled "OF THE PRESENT ABILITY OF AMERICA, WITH SOME MISCELLANEOUS REFLEXIONS":

But to expend millions for the sake of getting a few vile acts repealed, and routing the present ministry only, is unworthy the charge, and is using posterity with the utmost cruelty; because it is leaving them the great work to do, and a debt upon their backs, from which, they derive no advantage. Such a thought is unworthy a man of honor, and is the true characteristic of a narrow heart and a pedling politician.

- Above quote is Thomas Paine's "Common Sense"

This is the third post in a series of my favorite portions of Thomas Paine's book "Common Sense". It is a worthwhile read and is available free from Amazon for download to Kindle or other device.

The Present State of American Affairs

Today's quotes come from the section entitled "THOUGHTS ON THE PRESENT STATE OF AMERICAN AFFAIRS":

The sun never shined on a cause of greater worth. 'Tis not the affair of a city, a country, a province, or a kingdom, but of a continent—of at least one eighth part of the habitable globe. 'Tis not the concern of a day, a year, or an age; posterity are virtually involved in the contest, and will be more or less affected, even to the end of time, by the proceedings now.

And:

Besides, what have we to do with setting the world at defiance? Our plan is commerce, and that, well attended to, will secure us the peace and friendship of all Europe; because, it is the interest of all Europe to have America a FREE PORT.

And finally:

As parents, we can have no joy, knowing that THIS GOVERNMENT is not sufficiently lasting to ensure any thing which we may bequeath to posterity: And by a plain method of argument, as we are running the next generation into debt, we ought to do the work of it, otherwise we use them meanly and pitifully.

- All quotes are from Thomas Paine's "Common Sense"

This is the second post in a series of my favorite portions of Thomas Paine's book "Common Sense". It is a worthwhile read and is available free from Amazon for download to Kindle or other device.

An Honest Man Versus the Crown

This week, I feel like sharing some of my favorite portions of Thomas Paine's book "Common Sense". It is a worthwhile read and is available free from Amazon for download to Kindle or other device.

Today's quotes come from the section entitled "OF MONARCHY AND HEREDITARY SUCCESSION":

Male and female are distinctions of nature, good and bad the distinctions of heaven; but how a race of men came into the world so exalted above the rest, and distinguished like some new species, is worth enquiring into, and whether they are the means of happiness or of misery to mankind.

And:

Men who look upon themselves born to reign, and others to obey, soon grow insolent; selected from the rest of mankind their minds are early poisoned by importance; and the world they act in differs so materially from the world at large, that they have but little opportunity of knowing its true interests, and when they succeed to the government are frequently the most ignorant and unfit of any throughout the dominions.

Finally, his conclusion on this topic:

Of more worth is one honest man to society and in the sight of God, than all the crowned ruffians that ever lived.

- All quotes are from Thomas Paine's "Common Sense"

Occupying Something

I've resisted posting anything about the Occupy Wall Street protests to this point, but I wanted to say something about it today.

Here in St. Louis, we have our version of it currently operating on downtown St. Louis. Even the local newspaper can't figure out what the fuss is about. With that being said, it seems that one of the common themes of these activities is to make the wealthy pay their "fair share", which apparently translates into simply meaning they need to "pay more". If the some of the people doing the protesting are, in fact, currently unemployed, then they are essentially working against themselves.

Let's say that the politicians adopt the strategy of taxing the wealthier even higher rates. Inevitably, this will lead to the wealthy moving their financial assets from the American economy to another economy with less exorbitant taxes. In doing so, the American government will take a massive hit on tax income. The result of that income loss will lead to program cuts. Undoubtedly, some of those program reductions/eliminations could be in the welfare programs that currently support the unemployed, although knowing that politicians recognize this program as a way to maintain/buy voter support for re-election, I doubt many drastic measures would be taken. In the above scenario, if cuts do happen in these programs, the unemployed will be the ones paying the price, not the wealthy. And if they didn't happen, the politicians would be scrambling to find other areas to reduce their expenditures. Given Washington's track record of late, I think it is more likely that they would borrow against the future even more and drive the country towards a place where unemployed protestors in a park are the least of our worries as a nation.

In the meantime, the lack of a clear agenda and recognized leader of the movement provide little reason to listen to them at all.

Get organized (beyond union lines), figure out what your issue is that you want changed, offer several viable solutions and work towards influencing people in a positive direction. At the moment, it would seem that this is a bunch of unhappy people ready to protest anything. And that is fine, because they have that right. And they have that right, because other people are working hard and paying their taxes. But that doesn't mean they should be given the power to dramatically impact the lives of others or the future of our nation.

We'll see how the protest hold up when the weather turns much colder.

- Oh, and with the St. Louis Cardinals going to the World Series, I'd like to see the fans of the game reclaim the public property that has been used as a rally area for years and, prior to Wednesday's game 1, take back Kiener Plaza from the "99%" that are currently monopolizing it.

Why I Think America Is In Deep Trouble

Last week I was thinking about all of the hype surrounding the debt-ceiling when it occurred to me that I haven't check the status of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Base lately. What follows is a lengthy post where I try to recapture all of my thoughts on this and various topics that I have written about over the course of the past few years.

I started tracking the Monetary Base prior to attending the April 15, 2009 Tea Party in downtown St. Louis, after which I posted my reasons for attending the tea party event. Included in that post was a graph showing the National Debt Per Capita and the Adjusted Monetary Base.

Large Bureaucracy Leads to Democracy's Demise

"Least of all shall we preserve democracy or foster its growth if all the power and most of the important decisions rest with an organization far too big for the common man to survey or comprehend. Nowhere has democracy ever worked so well without a great measure of local self-government, providing a school of political training for the people at large as much as for their future leaders. It is only where responsibility can be learned and practiced in affairs of one's neighbor rather than some theoretical knowledge of the needs of other people which guides action, that the ordinary man can take a real part in public affairs because they concern the world he knows.Where the scope of political measures become so large that the necessary knowledge is almost exclusively possessed by the bureaucracy, the creative impulses of the private person must flag."       

- p. 257-258 The Road to Serfdom by F.A. Hayek

Large-scale Economic Planning Leads to Using Force

"To imagine that the economic life of a vast area comprising many different people can be directed or planned by democratic procedure betrays a complete lack of awareness of the problems such planning would raise...To undertake the direction of the economic life of people with widely divergent ideals and values is to assume responsibilities which commit one to the use of force; it is to assume a position where the best intentions cannot prevent one from being forced to act in a way whih to some of those affected must appear highly immoral."

- p. 244-245 The Road to Serfdom by F.A. Hayek

When Democracies Have Nothing to Offer

"If the democracies themselves abandon the supreme ideal of the freedom and happiness of the individual, if they implicitly admit that their civilization is not worth preserving, and they know nothing better than to follow the path along which the Germans have led, they have indeed nothing to offer."

- p. 238 The Road to Serfdom by F.A. Hayek

Minority Led Policy Leads to Destruction

"It is one of the saddest spectacles of our time to see a great democratic movement support a policy which must lead to the destruction of democracy and which meanwhile can benefit only a minority of the masses who support it."

- p. 218 The Road to Serfdom by F.A. Hayek

Authority Presented As "Organization"

"When authority presents itself in the guise of organization, it develops charms fascinating enough to convert communities of free people into totalitarian States."- "The Times" (London)

- p. 199 The Road to Serfdom by F.A. Hayek

Collectivists Must Be Unbound By Morals

"The principal that the end justifies the means in individual ethics is regarded as the denial of all morals. In collectivist ethics it becomes necessarily the supreme rule; there is literally nothing which the consistent collectivitist must not be prepared to do if it serves "the good of the whole," because "the good of the whole" is to him the only criterion of what ought to be done..."

"There can be no limit to what its citizen must be prepared to do, no act which his conscience must prevent him from committing, if it is necessary for an end which the community has set iself or which his superiors order him to achieve."

- pp. 161-162 The Road to Serfdom by F.A. Hayek

One Inherent Contradition of Socialism

"But what socialists seriously contemplate the equal division of existing capital resources among the people of the world? They all regard the captial as belonging not to humanity but to the nation - though even within nation few would dare to advocate that the richer regions should be deprived of some of "their" capital equipment in order to help the poorer regions. What socialists proclaim as a duty toward the fellow-members of the existing states they are not prepared to grant to the foreigner..."

"One of the inherent contradictions of the collectivist philosophy is that, while basing itself on the humanistic morals which individualism has developed, it is practicable only within a relatively small group. That socialism so long as it remains theoretical is internationalist, while as soon as it is put into practice, whether in Russia or in Germany, it becomes violently nationalistic, is one of the reasons why "liberal socialism" as most people in the Western world imagine it is purely theoretical, while the practice of socialism everywhere if totalitarian. Collectivism has no room for the wide humanitrianism of liberalism but only for the narrow particularism of of the totalitarian."

- pp. 155-156 The Road to Serfdom by F.A. Hayek

The Creation of a Totalitarian Regime

"We must here return for a moment to the position which precedes the suppression of democratic institutions and the creation of a totalitarian regime. In this stage it is the general demand for quick and determined government action that is the dominating element of the situation, dissatisfaction with the slow and cumbersome course of democratic procedure which takes action for action's sake the goal. It is then the man or the party who seems strong or resolute enough "to get things done" who exercises the greatest appeal. "Strong" in this sense means not merely a numerical majority - it is the ineffectiveness of parliamentary majorities with which people are dissatisfied. What they will seek is somebody with such solid support as to inspire confidence that he can carry out whatever he wants. It is here that the new party, organized on military lines, comes in."

- p. 150 The Road to Serfdom by F.A. Hayek

Unrestricted Government Leads to Democratic Destruction

"Democratic government  has worked successfully where, and so long as, the functions of the government were, by a widely accepted creed, restricted to fields where agreement among a majority could be achieved by free discussion; and it is the great merit of the liberal creed that it reduced the range of subjects on which agreement was necessary to one on which was likely to exist in a society of free men. It is now often said that democracy will not tolerate "capitalism". If "capitalism" means here a competitive system based on free disposal over private property, it is far more important to realize that only within this system is democracy possible. When it becomes dominated by a collectivist creed, democracy will inevitably destroy itself."

- pp. 77-78 The Road to Serfdom by F.A. Hayek